JAKARTA, Sept 22 (Reuters) – Indonesia is expected to experience a shorter than usual rainy season starting in November this year, the weather agency said on Tuesday, which could impact crops as farmers adjust their planting schedules.
About 61% of Indonesia’s land area will experience delays to the rainy season, agency chief Teuku Faisal Fathani told a press conference.
The rainy season is estimated to arrive in early November for most parts of Indonesia, compared to the previous forecast of October.
The extended dry season has contributed to Indonesia’s most intense wildfires in 11 years after “super El Niño” weather drove up temperatures.
The El Niño weather pattern was still having a strong impact in September, agency official Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said.
El Niño was expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, but its impact will ease when the wet season comes.
The wet season will peak in most parts of Indonesia in December.
The weather agency has advised the agriculture sector to adjust planting schedules and choose crop varieties with shorter growing cycles to mitigate weather risks.
DELAYED HARVESTS
The late arrival of the wet season may lead to delayed harvests for some of Indonesia’s key crops next year, with yields already hit by El Niño.
Cocoa farmers have already seen bean production in the peak harvest months of August to September drop by up to 15% compared to June because of drought, Arif Zamroni, chairman of Indonesian cocoa farmers group APKAI, told Reuters.
Farmers were forced to use water delivered by trucks to help irrigate their plants, he said.
While yields are expected to improve next year, cocoa harvests are expected to be delayed, Arif said.
The sugarcane harvest next year is also expected to come late as farmers typically wait for the beginning of the rainy season to start planting, said Soemitro Samadikoen, chairperson of the Indonesian smallholder sugarcane farmers association APTRI.
In normal conditions, sugarcane farmers typically start planting from September to October. The shorter rain period will also affect yields next year, Soemitro added.
“The plant’s growth will not meet our expectations if there is not enough water during the early growth stage,” he said.
Sugarcane production has already been impacted by drought and wildfires this year, with APTRI estimating a 25% drop in average output.
Rice output may also drop 10% next year, with around 30% of Indonesia’s paddy fields lacking irrigation infrastructure and vulnerable to drought, said Zulharman Djusman, an official with the rice farmers group KTNA.
Output of palm oil, Indonesia’s top agriculture export, is expected to fall between 2% and 8% in 2027 due to this year’s drought, a palm oil analyst with a global trading house said.
(Reporting by Ananda Teresia, Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina, Dewi Kurniawati; Editing by David Stanway, Martin Petty)
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